NHL Playoffs: First Round Predictions

The best time of year is finally here. The Stanley Cup Playoffs kicked off last night with the Winnipeg Jets taking game one 4-3 over the St. Louis Blues, followed by the Colorado Avalanche taking game one 4-1 over the Dallas Stars.

Before the puck drops today, let’s dive into some first-round predictions.

Western Conference

Winnipeg Jets vs St. Louis Blues

Prediction: Winnipeg wins series 4–2

MVP: Connor Hellebuyck

The St. Louis Blues face the NHL’s toughest opponent in round one: the Winnipeg Jets. With 56 wins and 116 points, the Jets claimed their first-ever Presidents’ Trophy as the league’s top regular-season team.

It’s tough to pinpoint any weaknesses in Winnipeg’s lineup. Connor Hellebuyck—arguably the top goalie in the game today—put up another Vezina-caliber year, leading the league with 47 wins, 8 shutouts, and a 2.00 GAA. Offensively, the Jets were just as dominant, ranking third in goal differential and first on the power play at 28.9%.

The Blues aren’t pushovers either. After a shaky start, they caught fire late in the season with a franchise-record 12-game win streak from March 15 through April 5. For them to have a shot at the upset, Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas, and Jordan Binnington will need to replicate their 2019 Cup-winning form.

Colorado Avalanche vs Dallas Stars

Prediction: Colorado wins series 4–3

MVP: Cale Makar

The Dallas Stars enter the playoffs on a cold streak—losing seven straight and finishing 3-5-2 in their final 10 games. Injuries to key players Jason Robertson and Miro Heiskanen haven’t helped.

Veteran Tyler Seguin’s return from hip surgery brings experience and leadership, which could provide a spark. But Colorado’s speed, aggression, and skill may be too much to handle.

Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar will dictate this series. Both are explosive skaters with elite offensive IQ, capable of turning on a dime and lighting the lamp before you even settle into your seat.

Goaltending was a concern early in the year for the Avs, but since acquiring Mackenzie Blackwood from the Sharks, he’s stabilized the crease and could very well backpack this team to the Finals.

Vegas Golden Knights vs Minnesota Wild

Prediction: Vegas wins series 4–2

MVP: Jack Eichel

After another division title, Vegas is a favorite to make a deep run. Jack Eichel quietly had the best season of his career, racking up 28 goals and 94 points—beating his previous best by a wide margin.

Vegas thrives on depth. With five 20-goal scorers and three defensemen with 30+ points, this team can hurt opponents in a variety of ways.

Minnesota does catch a break with the return of Kirill Kaprizov. Out for over two months due to lower-body surgery, Kaprizov picked up right where he left off—posting four points in his first four games back. If he gets hot, this series could tighten up quickly.

Edmonton Oilers vs Los Angeles Kings

Prediction: Edmonton wins series 4–3

MVP: Leon Draisaitl

For the fourth straight year, the Oilers and Kings meet in round one. The big question: can Edmonton make it four in a row, or will home-ice advantage finally push the Kings past McDavid & Co.?

This will be one of the most entertaining series of the opening round. With plenty of bad blood and star power, it’s a must-watch.

It’s tough to bet against the Oilers when they have two of the best players in the world. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl each hit the 100-point mark again, with Draisaitl notching his fourth 50-goal season. That offensive firepower alone makes Edmonton a contender.

The X-factor? Goaltending and defense. When the Oilers' backend holds up, they can beat anyone.

Still, LA isn’t backing down. They boast the league’s best home record (31-6-4) and are hungry to flip the script. Quinton Byfield has blossomed into a legitimate threat, posting back-to-back 50-point seasons. In net, Darcy Kuemper had a phenomenal year (31-11-7, 2.02 GAA, .922 SV%) and could be the difference-maker.

Eastern Conference

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators

Prediction: Toronto wins series 4–3

MVP: William Nylander

For the first time since 2017, the Ottawa Senators are back in the playoffs. With a gritty, hard-nosed style and a young core making their playoff debuts—including Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle, and Drake Batherson—Ottawa will be fun to watch.

Linus Ullmark, the 2023 Vezina winner, gives the Sens a chance to steal this series. He’s been a top-10 goalie all year and a major reason they snuck into the postseason.

Toronto’s path forward is simple: their stars have to deliver. Past playoff failures often stemmed from inconsistent top-line performances. This time, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander need to rise to the occasion.

Nylander has been Toronto’s most reliable playoff performer recently, tallying 20 points in the Leafs' last 22 playoff games.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers

Prediction: Tampa Bay wins series 4–2

MVP: Nikita Kucherov

The Battle of Florida is back—and this time, Tampa Bay holds home-ice advantage.

The Lightning look scary again. They led the NHL in goal differential, ranked top six in both special teams categories, and saw Andrei Vasilevskiy return to form (.921 SV%, up from .900 last season).

Offensively, they’re stacked. Seven 20-goal scorers, four players with 80+ points, and Kucherov leading the league with 121 points make this team a nightmare to defend.

Florida, meanwhile, hasn't looked like themselves. Only one player (Sam Reinhart) broke the 80-point mark, and Sergei Bobrovsky had a forgettable season in net. The Panthers look like a tired team after back-to-back Cup Final appearances—and they may need a miracle to reignite that spark.

Washington Capitals vs Montreal Canadiens

Prediction: Washington wins series 4–1

MVP: Tom Wilson

The Capitals are riding high. Alexander Ovechkin broke Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goal record this season, and the team secured the No. 1 seed in the East—earning home-ice advantage through the conference final.

They’ve been dominant from start to finish, ranking second in goal differential (3.49 GF/GA) and fifth on the penalty kill at 82%.

Montreal, on the other hand, squeaked into the playoffs as the final wild card after beating Carolina on April 16. They’ve clawed their way in and won’t go down quietly.

A major storyline to watch: the debut of top prospect Ivan Demidov. The electric Russian winger joined the Habs for their final two games and tallied a goal and an assist in his NHL debut.

Carolina Hurricanes vs New Jersey Devils

Prediction: Carolina wins series 4–2

MVP: Seth Jarvis

New Jersey will be without superstar Jack Hughes, who’s sidelined until next season with a shoulder injury. That’s a huge loss. For the Devils to stay competitive, Jesper Bratt and Nico Hischier will need to step up and carry the scoring load.

Carolina holds the edge with elite depth and a rock-solid blue line. All four forward lines can contribute, and their D-core—featuring Jaccob Slavin, Brent Burns, and Shayne Gostisbehere—is one of the best in the league.

Goaltending is a concern for both sides. Devils’ netminder Jacob Markstrom faded late in the season, finishing with a .900 SV%—his worst since 2023. Meanwhile, Carolina’s tandem of Frederik Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov combined for a .888 SV%, ranking 26th in the league.

If either team finds a hot hand between the pipes, it could swing the series. But overall, Carolina’s structure and experience should carry them to Round 2.